Walking to breakfast the next morning, it dawns on me; they must be knowing the number of clubs in their partner’s hand. That’s why Lotan could bid 5 clubs at ease. That’s why Ron could lead a club from Jxx against 3NT finding his partner with KQ109x. And that’s probably why this board went wrong for them in the Spingold semi final against Lavazza (Board 17, Closed room):
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What would you bid over 1 spade?
Some of you would probably think 2 NT is the normal bid with 5-5 in the minors. It might be for you, but not for a world class player. Your partner is a passed hand so the upside for a part score your way is relatively small. By bidding 2 NT you would also tip of the opponents to how to play the contract either in a part score or a game. And there is a risk for going for a number with a 2 NT bid. If partner has 2-2 in the minors (or even 3-2 or less minor cards) you might be going down a few doubled even without your opponents having a game. And if you are quite a conservative player like most of the Israelis are (including Lotan), 2 NT is just not the bid for you in this situations.
Lotan still bid 2 NT. Why? Well, if you know that your partner has four clubs (and maybe also a reasonable hand) 2 NT is more or less safe and you will soon get to the right level to compete for the contract.
3 diamonds from Duboin was an invite with spade support, but what does 3 hearts mean? That’s pretty clear for a passed hand; 5 cards hearts and good support for one of the minor suits. Like the hand Ron had (though it didn’t need to be quite as strong). So why did Lotan pass 3 hearts and gave lefty an opportunity to defend a 5-1 fit (rather than a 5-4 fit)?
When you cheat at bridge, you have to get into a different mind set than that of a normal bridge player. All the time you would have to consider your actions so you don’t blow your own whistle. Let’s say you have KQJ109-xxx-Kx-xxx and the bidding goes 1 NT on your right and 3 NT on your left. Then you get (an illegal) signal from partner that he’s screaming for a diamond lead. What would you lead?
If you are not (totally) stupid you would still lead the king of spades. Leading a diamond and beating the contract when partner actually has AQJxx is just not worth it (unless someone put a gun to your head) since it will be the last bridge hand you play. Everyone would know that you were cheating. Don’t we have to look for more hands? No, we just have to throw these guys out of the game and never invite them back.
So I think Lotan senses that this could be a telling hand if he bids over 3 hearts. Did he forget that partner hadn’t open with a preempt? Unlikely, so a player of his format should know that partner has a minor fit. Maybe he thought he didn’t need to “reveal” that he already knew how many clubs partner had by bidding to the 4-level. It seemed likely that Duboin would compete with 3 spades, and then Ron could bid 4 clubs. When Duboin passed instead, it was eggs on Lotan’s face.